*Chart of the Day – 11.27.2008

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


CHART OF THE DAY….Via Overcoming Bias, three French researchers surveyed 1,540 people and offered them the opportunity to play a game in which a coin is tossed ten times and they’ll win ten euros each time it comes up heads. “The participant is then asked for his/her own estimation, according to his/her experience and his/her luck, of the number of times heads will occur, i.e. how many times (out of ten) he/she thinks he/she is going to win (and get 10 euros).” What do you think is the most terrifying aspect of this survey?

  1. The mean answer was 3.9.

  2. About ten people thought they would win every single toss.

  3. The authors managed to produce a 21-page paper out of this.

The full survey is here. The authors also note that women are more pessimistic than men; old people are more pessimistic than young; and that nearly everyone answers “five” if monetary gain is removed from the question. In other words, people seem to know the odds, they just think the universe is stacked against them. (Or that the researchers are going to cheat. Take your pick.)

The exception, of course, is those ten respondents who think they’ll win every time. Here in America, we call those people “investment bankers.”

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate