The Gender Gap

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THE GENDER GAP….Ruth Rosen writes today that women “sealed the deal” for Obama:

For the last two years, I’ve been writing and telling anyone who would listen that American women could elect the next president, if only they voted.

Well, this time they did, and there is no doubt that women were a decisive factor in the election of Barack Obama.

….Just take a serious look at the numbers. As the data in the Week in Review in the New York Times reveals, women constituted 53% of the electorate, while only 47% of men voted. Among those who voted for Obama, 56% were women and 43% were men. Among unmarried women, a whopping 70% voted for Obama.

Is this true? Remember, Obama’s overall national swing was 9 percentage points compared to John Kerry in 2004. So women only made an outsize difference if they swung by substantially more than 9 points.

But they didn’t. The swing among women was 10 points. That’s actually smaller than the swing among men, who switched to Obama by 12 points. There’s some slop in these numbers thanks to sampling error and so forth, but it’s unlikely that women played an unusually large role in this election. The gender gap this year was pretty much the same as it was four years ago.

On the other hand, it is true that unmarried women swung hard for Obama. Kerry carried this group by 25 points in 2004, while Obama carried them by 41 points this year. That’s a swing of 16 points, nearly double the national trend. I don’t know exactly what it was about his character or his policies that did it, but there’s certainly a story of some kind there.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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