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This is from the budget outline released by the Obama administration on Thursday:

After enactment of the Budget, the Administration will work expeditiously with key stakeholders and Congress to develop an economy-wide emissions reduction program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions approximately 14 percent below 2005 levels by 2020….

I wonder what their economic assumptions are here?  Here’s the revenue timeline, starting in 2012:

At first glance, this strikes me as odd.  With only slight variations, it assumes $80 billion in revenue every year between 2012 and 2019.  But that doesn’t really make sense.  What you normally expect with a carbon trading program is that you begin with a high cap (carbon emissions in 2012 will probably start out 10% higher than 2005 emissions) and then ratchet the cap down every year after that.  As the cap goes down, the price of permits goes up.  It’s true that the number of permits goes down at the same time, but this shouldn’t be enough to make up for the higher permit price.  Overall, until the green technology buildout hits a critical mass, the revenue from the program should go up considerably over time.

But not in this one.  I wonder why?

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We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

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