The Way Forward in Afghanistan

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Fred Kaplan tries to read the tea leaves in Afghanistan today.  Why is President Obama taking so long to decide on a strategy, and what is that strategy likely to be?

Counterinsurgency involves protecting the local population from insurgency groups, so that the national government is better able to provide basic services, thus winning popular support and undermining the insurgents’ appeal. If the government is particularly corrupt or incompetent, it won’t be able to build on the security wrought by a good counterinsurgency campaign, thus nullifying our success and sacrifice.

….Some advocates of the strategy have cautioned that counterinsurgency campaigns take years, even decades, to bear fruit….In the meantime, Obama told [Jake] Tapper that he and his advisers “are identifying not just a national government in Kabul but provincial government actors that have legitimacy in the right now.”

This suggests that Obama is seeking ways to go around the central government — striking separate deals with provincial leaders or providing more or less intensive levels of support — if Karzai proves to be a feeble partner in our counterinsurgency campaign. Or it might suggest one way to exert leverage over Karzai — to make clear that we will empower regional players, and thus weaken his own standing, if he doesn’t clean up his act, thus making his regime more legitimate in the eyes of his people and therefore better able to beat the Taliban in the competition for hearts and minds.

That’s….plausible.  Obama likes the counterinsurgency approach, but without a credible government to back it up, it won’t work.  Solution: find another government to work with. Make deals with tribal and provincial leaders instead of Hamid Karzai.  So he’s asking his team to figure out if there’s any chance of making that work.

It’s an interesting thought.  Especially for a president trying to convince the country that his policy in Afghanistan is still reality based.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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