Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.

The White House has cut a deal to create a shiny new “deficit commission” that will report back later this year on ways to get the federal budget under control. Unfortunately, there are lots of reasons to think that this is either worthless or the next best thing. Let’s count the ways:

  1. Jon Chait points out that Republicans aren’t on board: “A grand compromise to raise taxes and reduce spending would be a terrific thing. The Democrats are just delusional if they think this commission will produce it. Read the story again — it’s an agreement between Obama and Congressional Democrats. There’s just no way the GOP, which is calling for more tax cuts and demanding that Obama preserve even the waste in Medicare, will buy in.” True. In fact, most conservatives still refuse even to accept the fact that our skyrocketing deficit is mostly the fault of GOP policies from the Bush years, and congressional Republicans are already under pressure not to support any commission that doesn’t take tax hikes off the table up front. This is not a recipe for a reality-based recommendation.
  2. That 1982-83 Social Security commission that’s the model for this one? Turns out it didn’t work. Stan Collender glosses a New York Times account from Monday: “Former Social Security Commissioner Robert Ball, one of the Greenspan Commission’s most prominent Democrats, has written in a yet-to-be-published memoir that the commission wasn’t able to agree to anything.  Instead, Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill, neither of who were members of the commission, privately agreed to a deal.  The Greenspan Commission was pushed to take credit for it so that it looked more bipartisan-partisan and less of a backroom deal that was really the case.”
  3. Paul Krugman points out that even the agreement we did get from the Greenspan commission wasn’t so hot.  To paraphrase: the 1984 deal raised payroll taxes (which are paid primarily by the middle class) and provided breathing room to maintain cuts to the income tax (which are paid primarily by the well off). The basic bargain was that this would be reversed in a few decades: starting around 2020 or so, income taxes would have to be raised in order to pay off the trust fund while keeping payroll taxes steady. Whether you like the deal or not (I don’t, especially), that was the deal. More here. But as Krugman points out, Republicans have pressed ever since to abrogate it halfway through, pretending that the trust fund is just a “shell game.” In other words, now that the middle class has spent three decades paying for their half of the deal, the wealthy want to be let off the hook for their half — and Republicans support them. They’d probably do the same with a deficit commission.
  4. It probably won’t work anyway. The commission’s recommendations are just….recommendations. The House and Senate still have to vote to approve them, and they’re free to amend or filibuster them just like any other proposal. The politics of deficit reduction stay exactly the same, commission or no commission.

I’m probably missing some basic problems, but four is enough. I guess this is good fodder for Obama’s upcoming State of the Union address, and probably also a good way to keep this stuff off the table until after the midterm elections, but that’s about it. This is all about optics, not reality.

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate