Election Speculation

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So does the killing of Osama bin Laden help Barack Obama’s reelection chances? I doubt it. I’m not an economic fundamentalist when it comes to presidential elections — too many people read those economic models and forget the part where the authors explain that their model only explains about two-thirds of the variance — but it’s still the case that economic conditions account for most of a president’s chances of reelection. What’s more, the election is still 18 months away. Even if bin Laden’s death could play a role, there’s no way it would continue to have much impact a year and a half from now.

But there are at least two ways in which bin Laden’s death could still make a difference. First, the quality of opposition matters, and GOP contenders are making their campaign decisions now, not 18 months from now. It’s possible that yesterday’s news will tip a few high-quality candidates against running in 2012, and this would obviously make Obama’s job easier.

The other way it could matter is a bit more subtle: bin Laden’s death could, conceivably, lead to changes in U.S. foreign policy that make Obama’s reelection more likely. Perhaps we’ll now feel free to take a harder line with Pakistan. Perhaps Obama will be more aggressive about drawing down troops in Afghanistan. Perhaps al-Qaeda really will disintegrate somewhat after bin Laden’s death and this will lead to further U.S. victories closer to the election.

Obviously this is all very speculative. But I guess that’s what blogs are for. So feel free to speculate away in comments.

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And the truth is, going into the final 4 days of the year we still needed to raise $TK to hit our $350,000 goal and start 2021 on track. It's nerve-wracking, wondering if the big spike we normally see at the end of December is going to be another thing that doesn't go as planned in 2020, or worse, if, now that Donald Trump is set to leave the White House (for longer than a taxpayer-funded golf trip to a property he owns), folks might be pulling back from fighting for the truth and a democracy and think the hard work is done.

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