So let’s suppose that Herman Cain pulls out of the presidential race. Right now, RCP has the poll numbers looking like this:
- Gingrich 23.8 percent
- Romney: 21.3 percent
- Cain: 15.5 percent
The evidence suggests that Cain’s supporters will break to Gingrich by about a 2:1 margin, which would put Gingrich ahead of Romney by roughly 34 to 26 percent. Is that game over for Romney?
Maybe, but not so fast. At that point, the race finally fulfills its manifest destiny: It becomes the crazies vs. the noncrazies. And then the question is who the 15 percent of undecided voters are going to break for. My guess: about 2:1 for Romney, which puts them in roughly a dead heat again.
What happens then? My belief all along has been that the noncrazies still outnumber the crazies among the Republican rank and file. Not by a lot, maybe, but by enough. And the noncrazies will carry the day for Romney. However, Intrade suggests this is rapidly becoming a bad bet.
Of course, I’ve also believed for a long time that eventually European leaders will come to their senses and keep their continent from imploding. That’s not looking like such a good bet either.
Bottom line: My deep-seated belief in the eventual triumph of noninsanity, which has already taken some big hits lately, is about to be decisively marked to market very soon in two very high profile contests. Tick tick tick.