Chart of the Day: As Incomes Decline, So Does Marriage

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Marriage rates are down in America, and they’re down far more among the poor and working class than among those who are better off. That’s old news. But why are marriage rates down? I don’t know, and I gather that Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of the Hamilton Project don’t really know either. However, they suspect that there’s a fairly straightforward relationship between income and marriage: as incomes go down, so do marriage rates.

Maybe. The income numbers in the chart below don’t look very familiar to me (Median male earnings have declined 40% since 1970? Earnings in the top 5% have increased only 20%?), but if you take them at face value the relationship between earnings and marriage rates is indeed remarkably striking. The question is whether the correlation here is also causal, and if it is, which direction it runs. Have declining earnings provoked lower marriage rates, or have lower marriage rates affected men’s earnings? This issue is much more a hobbyhorse among certain precincts on the right than on the left, but I think it’s worth paying more attention to regardless of where you sit on the left-right axis. Family stability and community stability are important no matter what the causes of their decline may be, and figuring out those causes is worth some skull sweat.

(Via Economix.)

UPDATE: On the other hand, some skull sweat isn’t very worthwhile at all. Here is David Frum taking on Charles Murray’s latest attempt to handwave away the fact that declining earnings among working-class men may have had a wee effect on their attachment to the labor market, the marriage market, and to various other social norms of the 50s.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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