March 16, 2012

On Second Thought, Maybe California Doesn’t Matter After All

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Just a quick update: a few days ago I suggested that California might be fertile territory for Rick Santorum because California Republicans are pretty hardcore conservatives. And they are. Nevertheless, Conor Friedersdorf points out that our delegate apportionment rules work pretty heavily in Romney’s favor:

Perhaps he’s right. I’d never have predicted Santorum would get this far. Still, I’m willing to buy Drum lunch at Orange County’s finest purveyor of tacos if Santorum wins more California delegates than Romney. The vast majority of Golden State delegates (159, to be exact) are apportioned by congressional district. Each district has three delegates, and it’s winner-take-all within the district.

Click the link to read the rest, but the takeaway is pretty simple: Santorum might well win in the roughly one-third of California’s congressional districts (mostly inland and in Northern California) that are solidly right-wing, but he won’t do so well in, say, congressional districts in the Bay Area that have smaller numbers of Republicans but still get three delegates each.

So there you have it. Since I mentioned this the other day I figured I should provide an update. California probably isn’t as much in play as I thought. Conor, the tacos are on me.

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