Mitt Romney’s Amazing Negative Convention Bounce

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I thought I’d check in with Sam Wang today to see what he thought about Romney’s convention bounce, and the news for Republicans isn’t good. Not only does he think they got no bounce, he thinks they probably got a negative bounce. In terms of electoral votes, he figures they lost a bit, then gained a bit, and ended up about 10 EV short of where they started:

Fow what it’s worth, I’d attribute this partly to a weak convention — Hurricane Isaac, mediocre speeches, Paul Ryan getting a little too carried away with his deceptive claims, Clint Eastwood stealing the limelight from Romney — but mostly to the fact that we simply have a very divided electorate these days, and conventions aren’t likely to change too many minds. Add to that the fact that ad campaigns on both sides started running at gale force levels back in May, and the two candidates were pretty well defined long before Romney took the stage in Tampa. My guess is that Democrats will do a little better simply because they have better speakers and are running a tighter convention, but I doubt they’re going to see much of a bounce either. We’ll know by next week.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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