The 2012 Election is Finally Over! So Who Won the Forecasting Contest?

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Ron Barber won the AZ-2 House race today, and with that I believe the 2012 election is over. Final results:

  • President: Obama 332, Romney 206
  • House: 201 D, 234 R
  • Senate: 55 D/I, 45 R

So how did Sam Wang, our resident expert do? Answer: pretty well. A month before the election, he called the presidential race dead on and missed the Senate race by only one seat. His House prediction was off by 16 seats, but in fairness, he was in the middle of incorporating redistricting/incumbency effects when I asked him for his forecast on October 6, and he warned me that this might change things. His later forecast was considerably more accurate.

Still, the rules were best forecast a month ahead of the election. So who won? Here are all the commenters who got the presidential split correct:

Jeff Gauvin

  • President: Obama 332, Romney 206
  • House: 215 D, 220 R
  • Senate: 52 D/I, 48 R

Ziggy

  • President: Obama 332, Romney 206
  • House: 215 D, 220 R
  • Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R

Jason Broccardo

  • President: Obama 332, Romney 206
  • House: 215 D, 220 R
  • Senate: 56 D/I, 44 R

jharp

  • President: Obama 332, Romney 206
  • House: 215 D, 220 R
  • Senate: 55 D/I, 45 R

Oddly, all four predicted an identical House split, so the winner is jharp, who got the Senate split dead on. However, there’s an honorable mention co-winner too:

Kadzimiel

  • President: Obama 303, Romney 235
  • House: 202 D, 233 R
  • Senate: 55 D/I, 45 R

Kadzimiel was almost dead-on for both the House and Senate, and missed the presidential split only by Florida, which was a genuine nail-biter that could have gone either way.

So that’s that. The 2012 election is in the books. Kadzimiel and jharp are co-winners of the forecasting contest, and if you guys will send me your email addresses I’ll try to persuade the powers-that-be to sign you up for a free MoJo subscription for 2013. Congratulations!

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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