Generally speaking, global investors are pretty optimistic. According to a new Bloomberg poll, they think China is a trouble spot, but they’re bullish on prospects in Europe and the US, and a large majority are more confident than they were at this time last year. But take a look at this:
After the great crash of 2008, investors sure are sensitive about bubbles. They think equity markets are close to being a bubble; fixed-income markets are close to being a bubble; and even US treasuries are inching toward bubblicious territory. That accounts for just about everything except real property, which investors are still sanguine about—in the US, anyway.
This is just raw data, and it might not mean anything. On the other hand, no matter what investors say about the economy, if they’re bearish on real-world ventures (factory expansions, etc.) and they’re getting cold feet about financial ventures, does this mean that more and more money is going to be sitting on the sidelines? Or does it mean that all this money is going to suddenly start pouring into the safe haven of US housing until everyone gets scared of that too? Or something else?