What are the odds that Iraqi Kurdistan will ever be able to secede and form its own sovereign state? That depends in large part on whether the United States and other countries support Kurdish independence, which so far they haven’t. Today, however, the EU officially encouraged its members to “respond positively to the call by the Kurdish regional authorities to provide urgently military material.”
Is that a step toward accepting Kurdish independence? Maybe, but only a smidge. The EU statement also said that arms shipments should be done only “with the consent of the Iraqi national authorities.” And the Guardian reports that, “At the same time the EU reiterated its firm commitment to Iraq’s unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
If the new Iraqi government works out, this probably leads nowhere. But if the new government is no more competent or inclusive than Maliki’s, this could end up being a tacit first step toward Kurdish secession. Wait and see.