A New Poll Says Ted Cruz Is Now Leading the Republican Race, But It’s Probably Wrong

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The big campaign news of the day is a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing that Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump nationally, 28-26 percent. But this seems unlikely: Four new national polls have been released since yesterday, and three of them continue to show Trump with about 38 percent support compared to 17 percent for Cruz.

So what’s going on with the NBC poll? If it’s an outlier, it’s a hell of an outlier. I couldn’t even find a table extensive enough to tell me how unlikely it is to be just a sample error. One in a million, maybe? So maybe it’s a problem with NBC’s likely-voter filter? Could be. Or maybe there’s been an enormous negative response to Trump’s debate performance last Saturday? The NBC poll is the only telephone poll done entirely after the debate, so if that were the case it would show up most strongly there.

Very odd. I guess we wait and see.

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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