No, the Fed Isn’t Keeping Interest Rates Too Low

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily.


Donald Trump went on CNBC this morning and burbled some Trumpisms about the economy, among them his opinion that Fed chair Janet Yellen should be ashamed of herself for keeping interest rates low in an obviously partisan attempt to help Barack Obama. Matt Yglesias comments:

Versions of this kind of theory are pretty common in business circles, since business circles feature a lot of affluent white men who are generally ill-disposed toward the Democratic Party, but it doesn’t make any sense. After all, the way low interest rates are allegedly helping Obama is by improving economic conditions. But improving economic conditions is what the Fed is supposed to do. Why would they be ashamed?

More technically, the Fed has two mandates: keep employment high and price levels stable. If inflation were high, that might call for higher interest rates to cool down the economy, but in fact inflation is very low. Likewise, if the economy were at full employment, that might permit higher interest rates. But although employment has improved considerably over the past few years, no one thinks we’re at full employment yet. In other words, the Fed simply has no reason to raise interest rates.

But when conservatives talk about this, they don’t usually talk about the Fed’s legal mandates. Rather, they think the Fed is keeping interest rates “artificially” low, which will have ominous effects any day now. But is that true? What is the market telling us about the natural rate of interest right now? Well, the real rate of interest on AAA corporate bonds bounces around a bit, but at the moment yields are running about 1 percent. In Europe, corporate bonds yields are now negative. John Williams of the San Francisco Fed estimates that the natural rate of interest in the US is currently running at about 0.5 percent. The market is telling us that the natural rate of interest at the moment is very, very low.

So pay no attention to the burbling. The market is telling us that interest rates should be low, and the Fed’s legal mandates are also telling us that interest rates should be low. Janet Yellen is doing just fine.

DECEMBER IS MAKE OR BREAK

A full one-third of our annual fundraising comes in this month alone. That’s risky, because a strong December means our newsroom is on the beat and reporting at full strength—but a weak one means budget cuts and hard choices ahead.

With only days left until December 31, we've raised about half of our $400,000 goal—but we need a huge surge in reader support to close the remaining gap. Whether you've given before or this is your first time, your contribution right now matters.

Managing an independent, nonprofit newsroom is staggeringly hard. There’s no cushion in our budget—no backup revenue, no corporate safety net. We can’t afford to fall short, and we can’t rely on corporations or deep-pocketed interests to fund the fierce, investigative journalism Mother Jones exists to do. That’s why we need you right now. Please chip in to help close the gap.

DECEMBER IS MAKE OR BREAK

A full one-third of our annual fundraising comes in this month alone. That’s risky, because a strong December means our newsroom is on the beat and reporting at full strength—but a weak one means budget cuts and hard choices ahead.

With only days left until December 31, we've raised about half of our $400,000 goal—but we need a huge surge in reader support to close the remaining gap. Whether you've given before or this is your first time, your contribution right now matters.

Managing an independent, nonprofit newsroom is staggeringly hard. There’s no cushion in our budget—no backup revenue, no corporate safety net. We can’t afford to fall short, and we can’t rely on corporations or deep-pocketed interests to fund the fierce, investigative journalism Mother Jones exists to do. That’s why we need you right now. Please chip in to help close the gap.

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate