No, the Fed Isn’t Keeping Interest Rates Too Low

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Donald Trump went on CNBC this morning and burbled some Trumpisms about the economy, among them his opinion that Fed chair Janet Yellen should be ashamed of herself for keeping interest rates low in an obviously partisan attempt to help Barack Obama. Matt Yglesias comments:

Versions of this kind of theory are pretty common in business circles, since business circles feature a lot of affluent white men who are generally ill-disposed toward the Democratic Party, but it doesn’t make any sense. After all, the way low interest rates are allegedly helping Obama is by improving economic conditions. But improving economic conditions is what the Fed is supposed to do. Why would they be ashamed?

More technically, the Fed has two mandates: keep employment high and price levels stable. If inflation were high, that might call for higher interest rates to cool down the economy, but in fact inflation is very low. Likewise, if the economy were at full employment, that might permit higher interest rates. But although employment has improved considerably over the past few years, no one thinks we’re at full employment yet. In other words, the Fed simply has no reason to raise interest rates.

But when conservatives talk about this, they don’t usually talk about the Fed’s legal mandates. Rather, they think the Fed is keeping interest rates “artificially” low, which will have ominous effects any day now. But is that true? What is the market telling us about the natural rate of interest right now? Well, the real rate of interest on AAA corporate bonds bounces around a bit, but at the moment yields are running about 1 percent. In Europe, corporate bonds yields are now negative. John Williams of the San Francisco Fed estimates that the natural rate of interest in the US is currently running at about 0.5 percent. The market is telling us that the natural rate of interest at the moment is very, very low.

So pay no attention to the burbling. The market is telling us that interest rates should be low, and the Fed’s legal mandates are also telling us that interest rates should be low. Janet Yellen is doing just fine.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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