Predictions For Tuesday

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I have no intention of making any predictions about Election Day.  The New York Times, for example, suggests that Democrat Katie Porter will edge out incumbent Republican Mimi Walters here in my home district, the California 45th deep in Orange County. That would be so great! But having lived for 60 years—represented by Republicans in every single one of those years—it’s just hard to believe it might finally happen. We’ll see.

Anyway, with no polling days left before Election Day, here are two projections for the House. The first is from Sam Wang:

He puts the generic congressional ballot at +8 percent for the Democrats, which would be enough to barely win control of the House with a pickup of around 30 seats. And here’s Nate Silver:

This appears to be a bit more optimistic, with a projection of a 38-seat Democratic gain and an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House. Keep your fingers crossed and keep ringing those doorbells!

POSTSCRIPT: As for the Senate, don’t ask. No one has much confidence the Democrats can run the table and take back control. Unless something big happens, it looks like Mitch McConnell has two more years left as majority leader.

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THE TRUTH IS...

what drives Mother Jones' team of 50-plus journalists. The truth is powerful, as evidenced by how hard those with something to hide, or profit to gain, seek to discredit it. The truth, stated boldly and reported meticulously, is what draws so many readers to Mother Jones.

And the truth is, going into the final 4 days of the year we still needed to raise $TK to hit our $350,000 goal and start 2021 on track. It's nerve-wracking, wondering if the big spike we normally see at the end of December is going to be another thing that doesn't go as planned in 2020, or worse, if, now that Donald Trump is set to leave the White House (for longer than a taxpayer-funded golf trip to a property he owns), folks might be pulling back from fighting for the truth and a democracy and think the hard work is done.

It's not, and if you can right now, please consider a year-end donation to support our team's fearless nonprofit journalism so we can close that big fundraising gap and finish the year strong, ready for all that's ahead in 2021. Whether you can give $5 or $500, it all matters in keeping us charging hard, and we'd be grateful.

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