March 19, 2019

Remember 3% Growth? It’s Now Down the Memory Hole.

President Trump’s illustrious Council of Economic Advisers issued its annual report today. But you have to go to page 527 to find the straight dope:

As illustrated in figure 10-16…the Administration anticipates economic growth to remain at or above 3.0 percent through 2023, assuming full implementation of the economic agenda detailed in this Report and its predecessor. We expect near-term growth to be supported by the continuing effects of the TCJA, discussed in chapter 1, as well as new measures to promote increased labor force participation and deregulatory actions, discussed in chapters 3 and 2, and an infrastructure program, discussed in chapter 4 of the 2018 Economic Report of the President, which we assume will commence in 2019 with observable effects on output beginning in 2020.

Hmmm. Let’s take a look at figure 10-16, shall we?

For now, ignore the fact that GDP growth in 2018 was 2.9 percent, not 3.1 percent, if you measure it the way everyone else does. Instead, concentrate your attention on the red line, which projects real GDP growth under “current law.” It shows GDP growth of only 2.6 percent by 2021, declining to barely overy 2 percent by 2026. What happened to 3 percent growth?

Funny thing about that. It turns out that Trump’s advisers have a new story for us: We could have 3 percent growth, but only if we pass a new tax cut and a big infrastructure bill and a bunch of deregulation of big business and some new labor policies. Oh, and all this stuff has to be passed in the next nine months. If it’s not, then economic growth will plummet and it will all be the fault of Democrats.

I’m glad we finally got that straight. So here’s my projection: GDP growth this year and next will clock in at around 2 percent if we’re lucky, and none of Trump’s fantasies about infrastructure or taxes or anything else will have any effect on that. We’ve already gotten one tax cut for the rich, and it appears to have produced a small bump in 2018 growth and then petered out. Everyone knows it will have no further effect, even if the fantasist-in-chief insists otherwise.

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That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

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This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

payment methods

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