Just How Deadly Is COVID-19?

According to Chinese authorities, here are the number of COVID-19 cases in the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak started:

If these numbers are to be believed, the number of new cases is starting to level out and looks unlikely to ever pass 55,000. That’s about 0.5 percent of Wuhan’s population of 11 million.

Now, as near as I can tell, the virus spreads far more widely in urban areas than in rural areas. If COVID-19 were to spread in American cities the same way it did in Wuhan, that would suggest maybe 1.5 million infections and 70,000 deaths, mostly concentrated among those over 60. But that’s almost certainly way too high. Wuhan is something of a worst-case scenario, after all: it was the first place hit; nobody knew what to do at first; and it quickly grew beyond the ability of the Chinese medical system to handle. Even in China, nearly all the victims have been in Wuhan, and it seems unlikely that any other city will ever reach the infection rate they’ve suffered.

Given all this, it seems very unlikely that American infections will ever surpass 1 million or that deaths will surpass 40,000—at most. This compares to the estimated 34,000 deaths from flu last year and 61,000 the year before. In other words, every time you go out shopping you’re already taking a bigger risk of dying from the flu than you’ll ever have from COVID-19.

So here’s my question: I understand that no professional would ever whomp up a prediction like this and make it public. It’s the flimsiest kind of horseback guess and shouldn’t be taken seriously by anyone. What’s more, COVID-19 is still new: we don’t have good data about the infection rate and it’s not clear how reliable the Chinese data is. Still, surely epidemiologists have estimates that they’ve passed around privately. Are they anywhere near mine? Like, even within an order of magnitude? I realize that keeping people scared is a good way of ensuring behavior that will keep infections down, but is that the only reason? Or are professionals genuinely more scared than I am?

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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