Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 17 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 17. The regular daily charts are still here (just scroll down), but I want to show something different today. The charts below show the daily death toll in the usual nine countries that I track (smoothed using a 6-day rolling average). So what do they tell us?

Italy is still stalling. France kinda sorta seemed like they might be peaking, but now they’ve stalled for a few days too. Spain is stalling. Canada is growing slowly, but still growing with no peak in sight. Germany is noisy, but also doesn’t seem to have peaked. Sweden is difficult to analyze because of their weekend bumps, but they don’t seem to be near a peak either. Switzerland looks good. The UK might—maybe—be at their peak, but it’s too early to tell. Italy didn’t start to stall until a week after their peak.

And of course let’s not forget the United States:

Are we peaking? Maybe. I tentatively think we are, but the evidence is pretty equivocal.

Bottom line: We’re in a pretty dicey position. At least two countries that had definitely peaked are now stalled. Other countries that may be peaking based on case counts are hard to call based on deaths. Does that mean the case counts are inaccurate or that the death rates just need another week to catch up? Ask me in another week. In addition, we have news of new outbreaks in Singapore and China, and continued growth in Japan. South Korea has reported that some people who already had the coronavirus infection might be getting it again. In the United States, we need to worry about the possibility of new outbreaks from states that never locked down or are ending their lockdowns too early.

At this point, I have no projections. There’s only so much you can do with the data at hand, and it points in different directions depending on what you do with it. We’re just going to have to wait and see.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 43; total deaths are at 3,117x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 279.1 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 43.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our newsletters

Subscribe and we'll send Mother Jones straight to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate