Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 12 Update

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through May 12.

So is the “Swedish model” working? If the numbers from their Public Health Agency are accurate, it seems like it is. It’s true that they peaked at a fairly high death rate, but no higher than a lot of other countries. And now they seem to be dropping like a stone. If they keep this up, they’ll be close to zero new deaths within a week or two.

The real test, of course, is how they do over the next few months. Can their “light touch lockdown” be kept in place for the long term, thus preventing any huge new outbreaks? Do they have test-and-trace ready to go once the daily death toll is low enough to make it feasible? Come back in September or so and I’ll let you know.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

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