Wild Cards: A Field Guide to the American Swing Voter

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


Pollsters, pundits, and activists have identified more than a dozen types of swing voter— that political creature known for its discerning (or is it indecisive?) approach to electoral politics. Below, a handy guide to some of these sought-after voters and how they may– or may not– tip the scales in November.
— Dave Gilson

Office-Park Dads
Who they are: Suburban married men working in the hi-tech and financial sectors
First spotted by: Democratic pollster Mark Penn, May 2002
What will lure them to the ballot box: Fiscally conservative talk on jobs, trade, and taxes
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Turned on by tax cuts, turned off by corporate scandals.

Security Moms
Who they are: Post-9/11 soccer moms. Often mate with Office-Park Dads.
First spotted by: Republican pollster David Winston, October 2001
What will lure them to the ballot box: Tough talk against terror— mini-nukes not minivans.
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Flocked to GOP in 2002 midterm elections, but may no longer trust Bush’s security cred.

Campus Kids
Who they are: 10 million college students. Offspring of Office-Park Dads and Security Moms.
First spotted by: Harvard University Institute on Politics, May 2003
What will lure them to the ballot box: Being wooed directly, even though many take political cues from mom and dad.
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Split between GOP and Dems. But less than one third voted in last election.

“Sex and the City” Voters
Who they are: Single, mostly young, women
First spotted by: Various observers
What will lure them to the ballot box: Focusing on issues, not faux-feminist fluff.
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Likely Kerry voters. But 22 million sat out 2000 and many remain unregistered.

NASCAR Dads
Who they are:Southern and Midwestern blue-collar white men
First spotted by:Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, June 2002
What will lure them to the ballot box: Culturally conservative populism
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Once Democratic stalwarts, now heavily pro-Bush. Can John Edwards throw them into reverse?

Golden Girls
Who they are: Retired white women
First spotted by: Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, May 2004
What will lure them to the ballot box: Pills and bills—keep those drug benefits and Social Security checks coming.
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Currently split 50-50 between Bush and Kerry.

Wal-Mart Moms
Who they are: Suburban women in low-wage jobs. Previously known as Waitress Moms.
First spotted by: Stanley Greenberg and Celinda Lake, December 2003
What will lure them to the ballot box: Promises of better wages and benefits— anything to ease the financial squeeze.
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Went for Clinton in 2000, now up for grabs. Plus, does Wal-Mart allow employees to take time off to vote?

Corps Voters
Who they are: 2.6 million men and women in uniform and their families
First spotted by: Washington Monthly editor Benjamin Wallace-Wells, November 2003
What will lure them to the ballot box: Convince them you support the military more than the other guy
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Unclear whether they’ll mutiny against current commander-in-chief.

Freestyle Evangelicals
Who they are: 8 million politically moderate evangelical Christians
First spotted by: Beliefnet.com editor in chief Stephen Waldman and political scientist John Green, early 2003
What will lure them to the ballot box: Remembering that evangelicals care about issues other than family values
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Not solidly behind fellow evangelical Bush. But Kerry has yet to reach out to them.

Muslims and Arab Americans
Who they are: Muslim and Arab Americans in Michigan and other swing states
First spotted by: Arab American Institute/Zogby International poll,
January 2004
What will lure them to the ballot box: Anger over the post-9/11 civil liberties crackdown and Bush’s Middle East policy
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Backed Bush in 2000, but likely to defect to Dems in 2004. One-third are undecided.

Punk Voters
Who they are: Half a million young punk rockers with progressive leanings
First spotted by: Punkvoter.com founder “Fat Mike” Burkett, September 2003
What will lure them to the ballot box: The chance to head butt Bush and his “chaotic policies”
Unpredictable electoral behavior: May find a vote against chaos too ironic. And yes, there are conservative punks.

Schwing Voters
Who they are: 8 million Howard Stern fans
First spotted by: Salon.com correspondent Eric Boehlert, March 2004
What will lure them to the ballot box: The King of All Media’s crusade against Bush, the FCC, and Clear Channel
Unpredictable electoral behavior: Faced with tough drive-time choice between voting or tuning into Stern on November 2.

Fact:

Mother Jones was founded as a nonprofit in 1976 because we knew corporations and billionaires wouldn't fund the type of hard-hitting journalism we set out to do.

Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2024 demands.

payment methods

Fact:

Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2024 demands.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate