Popular Vote Musings on a Friday Afternoon

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A friend just alerted me to the fact that the popular vote section at Real Clear Politics has myriad different totals for the Democratic primary race. Enough to make the notion of a “popular vote” useless, in fact.

Here are the different ways you could calculate the popular vote. If there’s something I’m not thinking of, tell me in the comments.

1. Just the primaries.
2. The primaries with Florida.
3. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to Obama.
4. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to no one.
5. The primaries, plus caucuses.
6. The primaries with Florida, plus caucuses.
7. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to Obama, plus caucuses.
8. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to no one, plus caucuses.

You can see why people are so confused. Further complicating the picture: Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington state are caucus states that have not released public figures on caucus attendance. Estimates are needed in those instances.

I think in scenario 4, Clinton might be winning the popular vote. Maybe. Or something.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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