China Emissions Forecast To Double

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800px-135494920_1611fcc6c8_o_d.jpg China’s greenhouse gas pollution could double or more in two decades. This according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences in a report breaking with official reticence on the subject, reports Reuters. Beijing hasn’t released recent official data on emissions from coal, oil and gas. But researchers abroad estimate China’s CO2 emissions now surpass the US, the biggest emitter in recent decades.

By 2020 China’s could emit 2.9 billion tons of pure carbon annually. By 2030, up to 4.0 billion tons yearly. The Chinese Academy of Sciences estimates China’s current CO2 emissions by citing data from the US Department of Energy of 1.4 billion tons in 2004. The new report warns of drastic risks from the forecast growth, yet also warns that economic development must not be hamstrung. Sound familiar?

For more: an interesting study from MIT debunking the widespread notion that outmoded energy technology or the utter absence of government regulation is to blame for China’s air pollution problems. It’s more complicated than that (think: energy infrastructure and types of coal). However—”To a significant degree, our planet’s energy and environmental future is now being written in China,” says the study’s authors.

Julia Whitty is Mother Jones’ environmental correspondent, lecturer, and 2008 winner of the Kiriyama Prize and the John Burroughs Medal Award.

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