Quick Reads: “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t 

By Nate Silver

PENGUIN PRESS

Nate Silver, now the New York Times‘ resident stat-head, began earning his rep as something of a whiz by devising a probabilistic model that changed the way baseball franchises evaluate players. And during the 2008 election, he correctly predicted the winner of 49 states and all 36 Senate races. But his book isn’t a victory lap, it’s a confession: We’re not as smart as we think we are. From the housing bubble to political science, the best and perhaps the brightest routinely blow the biggest calls because they can’t separate the signal (truth) from the noise (distractions). We’ll risk one prediction, though: Silver’s book will be hard to put down.

This review originally appeared in our September/October issue of Mother Jones. 

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily crazy—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America will move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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